Tuesday, February 10, 2009

The value of a company

There was a time that I believed it was possible to objectively determine the "value" of a company. I learned at the University and later during my post-graduate education about "valuation models". I have to admit that "projections" about the future cashflows are key to determine the value, and that these projections are not an exact science and biased by the "estimated" future results. So somewhat it is logical that there is a "unknow" (should I call it subjective ?) factor in this.

Today, D-1 for an important Fortis decision, I have difficulties to understand how it is possible that for certain analysts a Fortis share is worth 1 Euro, while other value a share at 10 Euro. (both take a "NO" vote as the basis for their calculation).

For sure somebody will be more "correct" than somebody else, but it puts the whole "valuation" models/techniques/principles once more in a bad daylight. And that after the turbulent period in which we had to admit that for certain assets valuation was basically not possible.

I wonder why I spend time studying this kind of stuff in the past. And if even for me, the whole valuation is hard to understand, I wonder how non-economically educated people look at this?

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